Wine Country Real Estate Trends March 2010

March, 2010 – Wine Country Market Analysis

Napa County Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of March in Napa County (620) was 9% below the inventory (682) at this time last year. It was 7% higher than the inventory in February, 2010 (578) which continues the reversal of a downward trend that persisted for over a year. It is reasonable to expect a continued increase in inventory as the spring market evolves. New sales (188) were 71% ahead of the pace a year ago (110) and 47% ahead of the month of February (128). The median price of the homes closed in Napa County in March was $345,000, 5% higher than that of both a month ago a year ago. The city of Napa had an increase in new sales in March (119) that was 78% higher than that of a year ago (67) and 32% ahead of that of February (90) and has just a 3.1 month supply of inventory – typically, an indication of a seller’s market. American Canyon has just 1.1 months supply of inventory. Up Valley Napa County has a 11.3 month supply.

St. Helena/Up Valley Trends: The St. Helena/Up Valley market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville), had an inventory of 180 units at the end of March, 2010. This compares with 163 at the end of March, 2009. Sales for the month (16) were 129% ahead of the pace of a year ago and 78% ahead of the pace last month. The Up Valley market seems to be finally gaining some momentum.

Sonoma County Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (1374) in Sonoma County at the end of March was 12% lower than a year ago, but it was 15% higher than it was at the end of last month (1,191). We expect inventory to continue to climb as the spring market gets going. New sales (632) in March were 14% ahead of the pace in March, 2009 (553) and they were 42% ahead of the pace of last month (444). The median price of homes closed in March in Sonoma County was $325,000. This is 6.5% higher than the medium price of closed homes in March, 2009 ($305,000) and somewhat in line with the median price over the past six months. The average price per square foot of sold homes has stabilized around $230-$240/sq. ft. Based on the current sales pace, there is only a 2.2 month supply of inventory – a definite indication of a “seller’s market”.

Sonoma Valley Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (184) in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) at the end of March was 10% below that for March, 2009 (205), but it climbed for the fourth straight month from a low of 163 units in December. There were 56 new sales for the month which is 19% higher than that of a year ago (47) and 124% ahead of last month (25). The months of inventory based on new sales dropped to 3.3 months. There were 36 closings in the Sonoma Valley in March and our Sonoma Valley offices closed 29 units so our agents obviously handled transactions outside of the Valley.

Healdsburg Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (90) in Healdsburg at the end of March was just slightly higher than that of the available inventory (86) in March, ‘09. The inventory was 17% higher than the 77 units that were available at the end of last month. New sales (21) were 250% ahead of that of last month (6) and were 162% ahead of that of a year ago (8). The Healdsburg market seems to be gaining great momentum going into the later spring.

Cloverdale Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Cloverdale (45) at the end of March, 2010 was 32% lower than that of a year ago (66) and remained equal to that of month ago (44). Sales for the month of March (20) were equal to that of March, 2009 (21) and were slightly ahead of the 17 sales last month. There were only six closings in February, but there were 13 in March.

Windsor Trends: The inventory of homes for sale in Windsor (75) at the end of March was equal to that of the inventory (74) in March, 2009 and was 42% ahead of the inventory of last month (53). There were 41 new sales of homes and condominiums in Windsor in March which is 24% less than the 54 sales in March of 2009. The new sales level was up 46% from the 28 last month. The current market has just 1.8 months of supply based on the current sales pace. Prices bumped up to $233 per square foot and a median of $348,000 last month.

Home Buyers Opportunity is Nearing The End!

For prospective homebuyers who are on the fence about making a home purchase, the next few months represent a countdown of sorts for two reasons. First, huge tax incentives are about to expire. April 30, 2010 is the last day to enter into a home purchase contract and still potentially qualify for a federal income tax credit of up to $8,000 for first-time homebuyers and up to $6,500 for repeat homebuyers. The credit can be claimed only on contracts that close by June 30, 2010. Secondly, another form of stimulus will soon disappear, as the Federal Reserve winds down a program that has been keeping home loan rates artificially low. The fact is that the lowest rates of 2009 were driven down to their attractive levels because of the Fed’s Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) purchase program. The Fed has already used over 80% of the allocated funds for MBS, meaning less than 20% remains to be used over four months. As the Fed’s program winds down and ends, we’ll likely see two things happen. First, we will probably see higher levels of volatility–with rates sometimes shifting dramatically in the middle of the day. Second, since MBS will have less support from the Fed, rates are likely to rise over time.

December 2009 – Market Analysis

Napa County Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of December in Napa County (536) was 24% below the inventory (706) at this time last year and is the lowest inventory of available homes since February of 2006, three and one half years ago. The decreasing trend in inventory has moderated, however, and it is reasonable to expect an increase in inventory in the spring of 2010 instead of the decline that we saw through all of 2009. New sales (129) were 32% ahead of the pace a year ago. The average price per square foot of the homes closed in December was $237/sf, an 18% increase since February when the per square foot price was $201.00. American Canyon has just 1.2 months supply of inventory and the town of Napa has 3.9 months – so it is Up Valley Napa County that has an overhang of inventory. 29% of the available inventory in the county remains “Up Valley” at the end of December.

St. Helena/Up Valley Trends: The St. Helena/Up Valley market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville), had an inventory of 157 units at the end of December. This compares with 142 at the end of December, 2008, so it has been generally consistent throughout the year. Sales for the month (10) were the same as two months and were a bit below of the number of sales (13) posted in December, ‘08. The Up Valley market seems to be gaining some traction at the end of this year. Available listings in Up Valley represent 29% percent of the overall Napa County inventory, a relatively high percentage.

Sonoma County Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (1,093) in Sonoma County at the end of December was 40% lower than a year ago. New sales (471) in December were 8% ahead of the pace in December, 2008 (436). The median price of homes closed in December in Sonoma County was $350,000. This is 13% higher than the medium price of closed homes in December, 2008 ($310,000) and 23% above the low median price established in February of 2009 ($285,000).

Based on the current sales pace, there is only a 2.3 month supply of inventory.

Sonoma Valley Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (132) in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) at the end of December was 21% below that for December, 2008. There were 31 new sales for the month compared to 34 a month ago and 27 in December, ‘08.

The median sales price for the 33 homes that closed in December was $486,000 compared to a median price of $429,000 a year ago and well ahead of the lowest median price ($313,000) set for the year in April of 2009. There were 33 closings in the Sonoma Valley in December.

Healdsburg Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (63) in Healdsburg at the end of December was 22% below that of the available inventory (81) in December, ‘08. This is the lowest inventory in Healdsburg since March 0f 2006. New sales (14) remained steady in December. The Healdsburg market seems to have regained some momentum.

Cloverdale Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Cloverdale (38) at the end of December, 2009 was 49% lower than a year ago. Sales in Cloverdale for the month of December (9) was equal to that of a month ago and to that of December, 2008. The median price of the homes sold in Cloverdale in the month of December was $255,000, 14% lower than a year ago, but up 28% above the low for the year of $200,000 in March of 2009.

Windsor Trends: The inventory of homes for sale in Windsor (41) at the end of December was 58% lower than the inventory (97) in December, 2008 and was the lowest inventory since May of 2005, four and a half years ago. There were 28 new sales of homes and condominiums in Windsor in December which is fairly consistent with the sales pace throughout the year. The current market has 1.5 months of supply based on the current sales pace. Prices have stabilized at slightly over $200 per square foot.

Solano County: Since we closed 102 homes in Solano County in 2009, we keep an eye on the trends there as well. Inventory stands at 736 units – 68% lower than in December ’08, but it has climbed in the last two months. New sales for the month of December totaled 565 units – 6% higher than last year. This creates just a 1.4 month supply of inventory at the current sales pace. The average price per square foot of closed homes for the month was $135.00, up 13% from the low of $119.00/sf registered in April of 2009.

Please contact me for additional information.

Market Analysis for Napa and Sonoma, Solano Counties

December, 2009 – Market Analysis

Napa County Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of December in Napa County (536) was 24% below the inventory (706) at this time last year and is the lowest inventory of available homes since February of 2006, three and one half years ago. The decreasing trend in inventory has moderated, however, and it is reasonable to expect an increase in inventory in the spring of 2010 instead of the decline that we saw through all of 2009. New sales (129) were 32% ahead of the pace a year ago. The average price per square foot of the homes closed in December was $237/sf, an 18% increase since February when the per square foot price was $201.00. American Canyon has just 1.2 months supply of inventory and the town of Napa has 3.9 months – so it is Up Valley Napa County that has an overhang of inventory. 29% of the available inventory in the county remains “Up Valley” at the end of December.

St. Helena/Up Valley Trends: The St. Helena/Up Valley market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville), had an inventory of 157 units at the end of December. This compares with 142 at the end of December, 2008, so it has been generally consistent throughout the year. Sales for the month (10) were the same as two months and were a bit below of the number of sales (13) posted in December, ‘08. The Up Valley market seems to be gaining some traction at the end of this year. Available listings in Up Valley represent 29% percent of the overall Napa County inventory, a relatively high percentage.

Sonoma County Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (1,093) in Sonoma County at the end of December was 40% lower than a year ago. New sales (471) in December were 8% ahead of the pace in December, 2008 (436). The median price of homes closed in December in Sonoma County was $350,000. This is 13% higher than the medium price of closed homes in December, 2008 ($310,000) and 23% above the low median price established in February of 2009 ($285,000).

Based on the current sales pace, there is only a 2.3 month supply of inventory.

Sonoma Valley Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (132) in the Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, Glen Ellen and Kenwood) at the end of December was 21% below that for December, 2008. There were 31 new sales for the month compared to 34 a month ago and 27 in December, ‘08.

The median sales price for the 33 homes that closed in December was $486,000 compared to a median price of $429,000 a year ago and well ahead of the lowest median price ($313,000) set for the year in April of 2009. There were 33 closings in the Sonoma Valley in December and our Sonoma Valley offices closed 36 units. We obviously handled some outside of the Valley, but it seems we got a good share of the Valley closings for the month.

Healdsburg Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale (63) in Healdsburg at the end of December was 22% below that of the available inventory (81) in December, ‘08. This is the lowest inventory in Healdsburg since March 0f 2006. New sales (14) remained steady in December. The Healdsburg market seems to have regained some momentum.

Cloverdale Trends: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in Cloverdale (38) at the end of December, 2009 was 49% lower than a year ago. Sales in Cloverdale for the month of December (9) was equal to that of a month ago and to that of December, 2008. The median price of the homes sold in Cloverdale in the month of December was $255,000, 14% lower than a year ago, but up 28% above the low for the year of $200,000 in March of 2009.

Windsor Trends: The inventory of homes for sale in Windsor (41) at the end of December was 58% lower than the inventory (97) in December, 2008 and was the lowest inventory since May of 2005, four and a half years ago. There were 28 new sales of homes and condominiums in Windsor in December which is fairly consistent with the sales pace throughout the year. The current market has 1.5 months of supply based on the current sales pace. Prices have stabilized at slightly over $200 per square foot.

Solano County: Since we closed 102 homes in Solano County in 2009, we keep an eye on the trends there as well. Inventory stands at 736 units – 68% lower than in December ’08, but it has climbed in the last two months. New sales for the month of December totaled 565 units – 6% higher than last year. This creates just a 1.4 month supply of inventory at the current sales pace. The average price per square foot of closed homes for the month was $135.00, up 13% from the low of $119.00/sf registered in April of 2009.

Great New Top Ten Properties for the New Year!

 I love the start of the New Year, the new beginnings, fresh starts, new resolve.   The end of the year always see a lull real estate activity as most people with homes to sell will take them off the market and buyers are focused elsewhere. That said, during December 42 new listings came on the market in the Valley of the Moon and 78 properties either went into contract or sold, the average sales price being $708,954. Since the beginning of the year, activity has been robust in both the county and in the valley. In the county 149 new listings have come on the market and 210 properties have sold, with the average sales price of $437,525 and in Sonoma Valley 17 new listing have come onto the market and 11 have sold, with the average sales price being $771,934.

Some of my Top Ten choices are brand new on the market, some are leftover’s with great new prices and value.

1. 18160 Barrett Avenue, Sonoma: This is a cozy little charmer, perfect for a summer retreat or investment property and priced for someone looking to get into the market. It has old fashion details and a sunny lot. Downside of this one is it’s a REO, bank owned property. Great price at $212,900.
2. 18035 Lucas Avenue, Sonoma: Some of the best values to be had in the real estate market right now are Short Sales, in which the buyer is negotiating with the seller, then receiving approval from the existing lender. This property is a Short Sale, which I think is a benefit. It’s a charming 2 bedroom, 1 bath cute little Craftmanm on anew .
3. 775 Denmark Street, Sonoma: This is an excellent opportunity for someone looking for a country property to turn inot a vacation rental. The lot is surrounded by vineyards, its a short bike ride to the plaza, it would be an ideal location for an investor.  Priced at $419,000.
4. 224 Clay Street, Sonoma: WOW! What a great deal and darling little home in Prestwood scholl district. Great value, great family neighborhood, great location. Priced at $465,000.
5. 755 Michael Drive, Sonoma: Michael drive location and views, not price.  Priced at $539,000
6. 21750 Burndale Road, Sonoma: This Carneros property has very close to 5 acres. It is a project property, but priced as one as well. Priced at $599,000.
7. 1295 Sobre Vista Road, Sonoma: Sobre Vista Road at this price with 2 acres, it’s a GREAT deal. Priced at $699,000.
8. 121 Serres Drive, Sonoma: I love this prooperty, it is charming, warm, all old worldy and very cool It has gone through several price reductions to get down to this price and I think it’s a screaming good deal. See this one if you can, it’s a treat. Priced at  $899,000.
9. 1340 Kinnybrook Drive, Kenwood: This is a 3800 square foot exclusive, executive home on over 6 gorgeous acres in Kenwood Its custom, bright and tasteful. Awesome price( but a tough price range) at $1,495,000.
10. 144 Griswold Avenue, Kenwood: Awesome property with a beautiful remodeled home and a cute little vacation rental on the property with all the amenties and client base to go with it. Really lovely. Priced at $1,245,000.

It”s going to be a great year. I think we are going to see things moving in the real estate market, but not prices. I personally predict prices are going to remain at a plateau for the next year(if not longer). But great opportunity is out there and waiting to be had. Call me and let me help you have some.

 

Great News for a Great New Decade

Happy New Year, and welcome to better times ahead.

Home prices continued to rise for the fifth row in a month at the end of October.  December saw  28.9 million dollars in closed real estate transactions in Sonoma Valley alone.  Prices have climed for the past six months in a row in Denver, Washington, Minneapolis, and THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA! Home prices play a key role in the economy.  Homeowners feel wealthier when property values rise and are more likely to spend money.    The positive trend in home prices and a better employment outlook helped raise the Consumer Confidence index to 52.9 in December, up from a revised 50.6 the month before.

Americans ended 2009 feeling better about the economy than when the year began, buoyed by optimism that job prospects will improve in the first half of 2010. A great indication of these good feelings is the increase in sales of things like brooms, mops and garbage cans, which most people do not take with them when they move. Under ware sales rose too, which is another good indication that people are feeling more confident about the economy. Consumer expectation for the job market reached their highest level in two yearsThe bright spot for December was the consumer’ six month out look, which rose from 70.3 to 75.6 which is the highest level since December 2007.

In the Valley of the Moon, real estate inventory is running out which will invariable cause prices to hold and rise. During December only 39 new listings came on the market, which over twice that amount went into contract or closed escrow.  This is a darn good sign that the local real estate market is turning around. Great way to start the New Decade.  Happy 2010.

Sonoma County Holiday Events

11/27 & 28 Wineries Hold Open Houses

Twenty four Heart of Sonoma Valley Wineries offer a remarkable holiday celebration! Wines paired with holiday faire, gift packages, special discounts and so much more! Mix & mingle in wine caves, meet winemakers and enjoy a weekend in the wine country! 11am to 4:30pm. See details at www.heartofsonomavalley.com or call 866-794-9463. $30 Weekend Tasting Pass. $10 designated driver pass.

12/27 Christmastime at Garlock Tree Farm

Make the most of the holiday season at Garlock Tree Farm! There is fun for the whole family, with horse-drawn carriage rides, a candy cane castle jump tent, farm animals to pet, gift shop, trees and tree services. Free coffee & candy canes for all and more snacks available.

Fridays, 12-5pm, Saturdays & Sundays, 9am-5pm. 
(Except Friday, 11/27, 9am-5pm.): garlocktreefarm@sbcglobal.net

11/28 Cornerstone Gardens:
Lighting of the Snowmen
Holiday

Holiday treats, music, children’s activities, plus a scrumptious fundraiser following the Lighting of the Snowmen! Following the Lighting of the Snowmen, join the girl & the fig at the Chef’s Dessert Benefit! 4-8pm. Benefits the Sonoma Valley Education Foundation. 23588 Highway 121 Sonoma, CA 707-933-1300.

11/28 Santa’s Riverboat Arrival of Santa and Mrs. Claus At the Petaluma Riverfront onboard the tug, Petaluma, to greet the children and distribute candy canes. Free. 707-769-0429

11/29 Cottage Gardens Open House

Fresh baked cookies, cider, music and lots of holiday cheer. Receive a free vintage ornament of their  choosing with any purchase of $25 or more. (Sat & Sun). Cottage Gardens of Petaluma 3995 Emerald Drive Petaluma,  7 07-778-8025

11/29 Healdsburg Community Tree Lighting CeremonyDowntown Plaza Park. Lighting of the Holiday Tree with the Spirit of Life, in memory of and in living tribute to your loved ones. There will be music and candle lighting as well. Presented by Sutter VNA & Hospice. For more information, or to make a donation, please visit http://www.lightsoflife.org or call 1-800-541-5045

12/4 Sonoma County Museum Holiday First Friday Christmas music and refreshments Sonoma County Museum 425 Seventh St., Santa Rosa 707- 579-1500

12/4Fireside with Ravenswood founder and winemaker Spend an evening around the fire with Joel Peterson, Ravenswood founder & winemaker. Great stories and the Ravenswood 2007 vintage Vineyard Designates will be featured. Have a nibble, have a sip, and stock up on Holiday wines. Free.
Ravenswood Winery
18701 Gehricke Road Sonoma 707-933-2332

12/5 Lighting of City Hall with Santa on the Sonoma Plaza

Each year Santa Claus rides on a vintage fire truck to the Sonoma Plaza, lights up the Christmas tree and City Hall and passes out candy canes. 5:00pm.

12/5 Annual Childrens Christmas Show at Vetrans Building

12/5 Annual Dickens Holiday Crafts Fair More than 60 booths with handcrafted items created and sold by the artists. Prize give-away, entertainment and refreshments available for purchase. $2 Adults, Free 18 & Under
Finley Community Center & Aquatic Complex
2060 W. College Avenue, Santa Rosa

12/5 Luther Burbank Holiday Open House Start off the holiday season with a return in time to the Victorian era. See the Burbank Home decorated in traditional turn-of-the-century style. Enjoy tea and cookies in the historic Burbank Greenhouse. Admission $2 per person

12/5 
Ride Rosie The Trolley Free Ride Rosie The Trolley, Free, between the Dickens Holiday Crafts Fair at Finley Community Center and Holiday Open House at Luther Burbank Home & Gardens between 10 am and 4 pm each day. Rosie stops every 30 minutes – just look for the ‘Rosie Stops Here’ sign. Join holiday carolers and Santa Claus on Rosie.

12/5 
Sticker Warehouse Sale Mrs. Grossman’s is having a Warehouse Sale at their Petaluma factory.  Everything is priced from 30% to 80% below wholesale. The assortments include ‘retired’ stickers, nearly perfect ‘seconds’ and current designs.
Mrs. Grossman’s Sticker Factory
3810 Cypress Drive Petaluma 707-763-1700

12/6 Hospice Celebration of Lights

All are invited at 6:00pm on the Sonoma Plaza for the annual candle-lighting ceremony.  You may add a tribute light in memory of someone or as a holiday gift that will shine throughout December.  For information, please call Hospice By The Bay at  707-996-3645.

12/12 Christmas 
at the Mission

Christmas at the Mission, an annual Sonoma tradition, combines the holiday spirit with community history. It takes place at the Barracks and the Mission San Francisco Solano on Spain Street on the Plaza. There will be three different times for the program, 5 p.m. for children, and 6 and 7 p.m. The event is free but tickets are required.

12/12 &13 Holiday Celebration at Sebastiani Theather

A celebration of Sonoma’s community through song, dance and magic. At the Sebastiani Theater at 2pm. Ticket $12 adults, $8 seniors& children. Don’t miss an opportunity to visit with Santa Claus, who will be making a special appearance to visit with children of all ages! Call 707-996-9756 for information. or visit www.sebastianitheatre.com.

12/12 & 13 Sonoma Valley Chorale Concert
A “U.S.O.” Christmas

The Sonoma Valley Chorale presents their annual Holiday Concert at the Sonoma Valley Veterans Memorial Building, 126 First St. W. For times and tickets, call 707-935-1576, or visit the Web site at www.sonomavalleychorale.org.

12/17 Viva Cocolat: You’re the Chocolatier Event Make truffles to give as holiday gifts created with your personal touch. Viva Cocolat will supply an assortment of ganaches and coatings, and you supply the creative genius to roll and coat as many truffles as you’d like. You pay for the truffles made by weight. A transport box will be provided to bring home your creations or purchase candy boxes to finish your presentation. Workshop for adults and children over 10 years old in good health. Reservation required by Dec 14th: 707-778-9888
Viva Cocolat
110 Petaluma Blvd North, Petaluma, CA 94952

12/25Andrews Hall Christmas Dinner

Annual Free Christmas/Chanukah dinner. Starts at 3 pm December 25th at the Sonoma Community Center 276 East Napa St. Open to all. Call 707-938-4626 for information. Volunteers are always needed. Please call and sign up to lend a hand.